By Philip N. Ledoux
May 5, 2007
Reverse engineering has been an art and a science long before modern history. In
recent history electronic circuits have been prevented from being reverse engineered
by creating many seemingly inter-related parts, etched boards, etc. and
encapsulating it in opaque epoxy. Usually it slows down the reverse engineering
effort enough for a profit to be made on the invention.
Economics has been tried to reverse engineer or at least put together an equivalent
model of a country's or even the world's economy. It will appear to operate, but
fails within a decade. The closest anyone has come is a 200 to 300 year rise of
various civilizations a rise from obscurity to supremacy. Not bad when looking back
through millennia, but not very good as a predictor in the recent short term.
Somebody "way back when" knew how to put a monkey-wrench into any attempt to map or
predict world economies.
An obvious question becomes: how can you write so confidently about a monkey-wrench?
Well, not because I was so smart, but because I recognized (very slowly) an
accidental discovery for what it really was. My original effort was to try to
improve on an engineer's 10 year effort via 4 part harmonics to predict the DJIA [Dow Jones Industrial Average],
which he succeeded in doing 75% of the time (historical checked by myself). An
amazing feat by any yardstick. Smugly, I decided to do him one better via 5 part
harmonic analysis. Two years later I had something by the tail but it was more in
the order of a salamander or a mouse, I needed a tiger. Another year of fiddling
with phase shifting and I had a great big pussy-cat, or that's what it seemed to me,
until a broker friend told me what I had. Luckily the tiger was asleep, but later it
would attack me! (Depending on your perspective, my analogies might be too loose or
not loose enough.)
Here are the facts that I started with: Kondratief had discovered a 52 year
depression cycle, the bottom of The Great Depression occurred 1932 and I reasoned
that any predictive device would have to work within that 52 year cycle, and the
cycle probably ended or started in 1932, and a sine-wave is universal in nature and
engineering and probably in "everything."
The basic tool I was trying to develop was
nothing more than 5 simultaneous sine waves the parts being 52, 26, 13, 6 1/2, and 3 1/4years in length; that (the years) became the horizontal or "X" axis of a plot. The
harmonic of all this is nothing more than the trig sine values of each wave
determined by the unit value of the graph plot or 1 year points to make it simple.
After 2 years of hand calculations I certainly had something but it didn't make
sense, nor did it predict anything no matter what I compared it to.
[Note from Ken Adachi: Phil is explaining a 5 part harmonic analysis. He takes the number of 52 years and then divides that in half to get 26; and divides 26 in half to get 13; and divides 13 in half to get 6.5; and divides 6.5 in half to get 3.25]
With a heavy background in electronics I decided to try phase shifting. Another year
or more of creating graphs with various phase shifts simultaneously to all the 5
waves, I found something that easily related to "something." That something was all
the wars on the American Continent, except the American Revolution, occurred at the easily recognized tops in the graph! A broker friend who knew and remembered the
economy inside out, because of the loss of a leg as a boy which fired him up to become a broker, explained what I had found. During his lifetime I had traced the economy exactly. Hmmmm.
With persistence, using old encyclopedias and burning the oil in libraries, the
pussy-cat developed into a tiger. Total history began to make sense. The randomness
of wars became predictable and cyclic, although cyclic as a 5 part harmonic which is
not a strict linear cycle. By laying out this graph (map) through the centuries history became transparent, predictable backwards and thusly predictable forward. Oh
yes, for those who still wonder, the monkey-wrench preventing reverse-engineering or
piecing the parts together correctly is nothing more than phase shifting all basic
waves 270 degrees.
Single sine wave graph
My father and grandfather were blacksmiths and implement dealers locally until 1939.
I remember my father telling me often about the old wholesale salesmen telling my
father and grandfather that agriculture had a 7 years cycle. Considering that it was
discovered via observation, they did a marvelous job of defining that cycle! Agriculture is
the 6 1/2 year portion of the harmonic. I attribute the 3 1/4 year portion to
banking and the 13 year portion to energy (coal, oil, nuclear), and it is anyone's
guess what the 26 year and 52 year portions of the cycle relate to. Also, the plot
points become "Mid-Year" because the end of The Great Depression was July 1932.
Five Harmonic Cycles based on 52 year depression cycle
Every 3.25 years
Every 6.5 years
Every 13 years
Every 26 years
Every 52 years
I've invested in most types of markets and intensely analyzed them. I conclude that
although the market place is totally manipulated, the manipulators cannot just pull
off a caper just any time they please, they have to work with natural cycles which
most people discount or are unaware of. I've hunted for 30 years to find the natural
cycle that this 52 year cycle is based on, and finally stumbled into it via the
internet. The Myan culture had specialized calendar-priests who's only job was to
keep track of the relationship of Earth, Venus, Mars and the dog-star [Sirius]. They made
major astronomical measurements every 13, 26 and 52 years. That was an elusive fact
when digging earnestly, then became so simple in retrospect. The 13, 26, 39 and 52
year points of the harmonic map are the precise low points on the map.
I have given enough information for any serious researcher to duplicate my efforts
with minimal effort and time. And to save even more time (although it is good
practice to check independently) I've included the "numbers" to create a linear
chart of the "Economic Maze" which I call this 5 part harmonic map. The numbers
range from -5 to +2. The graph is a mirror image, thusly only 26 numbers are needed.
The graph vertical or Y axis becomes 0.1 per unit or equal to the horizontal 1 year
unit. You read the year dates above the data numbers as you start your graph and
identify the years. When you arrive at 1958 (-3) this is the middle of the mirror
1959 becomes the preceeding number (-1.2) and the year is identified below the data
number and continues in reverse applying the numbers to complete the chart.
Somewhere around the zero value (as given in the data numbers) is the dividing line
between possibility of wars above, no wars below. History is filled with false
names, so do not allow that to confuse you when you place them on an extension of
this map. Genuine revolts occur below the zero line. When placing the American Civil
War on an extension of the map, it becomes obvious that it was a planned war, which
revisionists have done an excellent job of verifying.
Philip N. Ledoux
Data Table #1
[Note from Ken Adachi: From the above graph, we can look at history and note that wars began in the years indicated on the upper part of the chart where the coresponding "Data" numbers are close to zero. E.g., for 1936, the Data number is -0.5 and 1936 marked the beginning of the three year Spanish Civil War. In 1941, the Data number is 1.0, while it's 0.3 in 1942 (closer to zero than in the 1941). While Germany attacked Poland in September of 1939, Britain or France did not begin to fight back until later in1940. Pearl Harbor was attacked in December 1941 (closer to 1942), after which the United States got involved in World War II.. The Korean War broke out in 1951 ( Data number of 0.3). The Data number drops near zero again in 1955-56. The conflict that comes to mind is the Russian invasion of Hungary in 1956. There might be others that I'm not recalling.
While 1945 spelled the end of war in Europs and later in the Pacific, the civil war in China war just beginning in 1946 (Data number -0.2) and continued up to 1949 with Mao's overthrowing of Chang Kai-shek.
On the reversed side of the chart, I notice that the low Data numbers in 1964-65 could reflect the beginning of the Vietnam War.
See what major conflicts or wars can be connected with the following years: 1979-1980, 1972, 1961, 1970]
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the opinion of the author and is provided for educational purposes only.
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